REALIZED VOLATILITY MARKETS · TOKENIZED EQUITIES · ROBINHOOD CHAIN

How much did it actually move?

Every market on this chain is a bet on direction. This is the one that is not. A series is one name and one trading week, bell to bell, and it settles on a single number: the volatility that name realized inside it. A crash and a melt-up of the same size pay exactly the same.

That number is quoted by nobody. Chainlink’s feed for each tokenized share publishes on a half-percent move, and an aggregator keeps every round it has ever published — so the week’s volatility is already written down, one print at a time, in storage anyone can read. Settlement here is not a price somebody reports. It is a walk along that tape.

And the strike is last week’s answer, read out of the contract’s own storage. Nobody sets it. That is why anyone can open a window, why the weeks chain end to end, and why the question is always the same plain one: is this week louder than the last?

THIS WINDOW, SO FAR
01234567890123456789.01234567890123456789%
PACE
—
% on time run
JOLTS
—
prints
WINDOW
—
% run
reading the tape…
AAPLREALIZED VOLATILITY

SCALE IN VOL POINTS, ANNUALIZED

One dollar, split along the band.

A USDG buys one SPARK and one CALM. At the bell the week’s realized volatility lands somewhere on this strip, and the dollar goes with it: everything below the strike to the CALM, everything above the cap to the SPARK, and a straight line between them. Hand both legs back at any moment and you get your dollar — which is why the price of a SPARK is a quote on volatility and nothing else.

Nobody can be liquidated here, because nobody is short anything they have not already posted. That is what the cap buys: no margin, no health factor, no keeper waiting for a bad Monday.

forecast = strike + price(SPARK) × (cap − strike)
STRIKE20.00
CAP50.00
SPARK0.000
long volatilityUSDG
CALM1.000
short volatilityUSDG

The week, as the feed published it.

Every spike is one Chainlink round. These feeds publish on a half-percent move or a 24-hour heartbeat, so a print is an event and not a clock tick: the spikes are all about the same height, and what carries the information is where they cluster. The flat stretches are the exchange being shut.

SETTLEMENT

Nobody reports the volatility. It is exhibited.

Every other volatility product has to trust somebody to say what the volatility was: a keeper sampling a price on a schedule, an index provider, a committee. This one does not, because the sampling already happened and is already on chain.

01Anchor

Pin the last print the feed published at or before the opening bell. Anyone can do it and there is exactly one right answer — and an anchor set one print too early is thrown out by the very next step of the walk, which is the step whose job is to prove it.

02Walk

Fold in round cursor + 1, and then the next, and then the next. Round ids inside a phase are consecutive integers, so a print cannot be skipped: the id after the one you dropped will not follow the one you kept. And every fold reads the aggregator, so one cannot be invented either.

03Prove

Stop on the first print that lands past the closing bell. That print is not a sample — it is the proof that no further print falls inside the window. Whoever walks it, in however many pieces, at whatever hour, gets the same number to the wei.

A name that goes quiet ends the walk on the feed’s own latest round once the window is shut — the same proof by a different route, so a Friday close never waits for Monday’s open.

A feed migration restarts the round count under a new phase. The walk bridges the join and counts the move across it, rather than losing it exactly where it is worth the most.

Each week is struck at the last one.

AAPL · SEPTEMBER 2026 · READ FROM THE FEED

Windows tile the calendar five sessions at a time — one starts exactly where the last one ended — and a window cannot open until the one before it is settled, because its strike is that settlement. This is what pays for the walking: the mint fees of a week accumulate into a pot that goes, whole, to whoever finishes its tape.

WINDOW n − 2
struck at 19.80%
22.40% realized
louder than the week before
WINDOW n − 1
struck at 22.40%
31.15% realized
louder than the week before
WINDOW n
struck at 31.15%
16.75% realized
quieter than the week before
WINDOW n + 1OPEN
struck at 16.75%
··.··% realized
waiting on its own prints

the two middle figures are real: AAPL realized 31.15% over the five sessions ending 14 SEP and 16.75% over the five ending 21 SEP, walked from rounds 568 and 630 of its feed